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Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Resurgent S&P 500 crests new 2023 closing high after roller-coaster year
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark index closed at 4,594.63, nearly 6 points above its previous closing high for 2023 set in late July. The S&P 500 is up over 19% year-to-date after posting its biggest monthly rise in over a year in November. The S&P 500 reached its previous 2023 closing high on July 31, also spurred in part by excitement over developments in artificial intelligence technology. The megacaps' outperformance has increased their combined weight to well over one-fourth of the entire S&P 500, meaning the stocks' moves have outsized influence on the benchmark index. The S&P 500 currently trades at roughly 19 times forward earnings estimates, compared to a historical average of 15.6 times.

Persons: Mike Segar, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Lewis Krauskopf, Noel Randewich, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Valley Bank, Citigroup, Microsoft, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: Lower Manhattan, New York, U.S

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

☆ JPMorgan strategists see 'challenging' backdrop for US stocks in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. The bank projected a 2024 price target for the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) of 4,200, or about 8% below current levels. Absent rapid easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, "we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year," J.P. Morgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and his team said in an outlook report on Wednesday. "In contrast to this robust outlook, we expect lower sequential revenue growth, no margin expansion, and lower buyback executions," the strategists wrote. Those risks include two major wars and 40 countries holding national elections including the U.S., which the strategists expect will drive equity volatility to be generally higher in 2024 than in 2023.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan, Dubravko, J.P, Lewis Krauskopf, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Charlie Munger, who was Warren Buffett's right-hand man at Berkshire, dies at 99
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Jonathan Stempel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/3] Berkshire Hathaway Inc Vice Chairman Charles Munger speaks at the Daily Journal annual meeting in Los Angeles, U.S., February 15, 2017. The death of Munger, a Berkshire vice chairman since 1978, marks an end of an era in corporate America and investing. "It's a shock," said Thomas Russo, a partner at Gardner Russo & Quinn in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, and longtime Berkshire shareholder. PHILOSOPHICALLY ALIKESince becoming a Berkshire vice chairman, Munger worked closely with Buffett on allocating Berkshire's capital and not mincing words when he thought his business partner was making a mistake. Money manager Whitney Tilson, who knew Munger personally, said a "generation of investment managers" learned some of their craft from Munger and Buffett.

Persons: Charles Munger, Lucy Nicholson, Warren Buffett's, Charlie Munger, Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Thomas Russo, Gardner Russo, Quinn, Rick Meckler, Charlie, Warren, Paul Lountzis, Whitney Tilson, Tilson, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Abel, Buffett's, Howard, CHARLIE, Jain, Lountzis, Russo, Jonathan Stempel, Lewis Krauskopf Svea, Bayliss, Chibuike, Megan Davies, Rosalba O'Brien, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, Daily, REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, Lountzis, Management, BNSF, Apple, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , U.S, Berkshire, California, America, Omaha , Nebraska, Lancaster , Pennsylvania, Munger, New Jersey, Wyomissing , Pennsylvania, Omaha, Warren, New York

☆ BMO sees solid US stock gains ahead, S&P 500 ending 2024 at 5,100
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In a market outlook report, BMO Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski and his team projected the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) would end 2024 at 5,100, nearly 12% above Friday's closing level. Investors have various definitions of a bull market, although one common definition requires the S&P 500 to reach a new all-time high to confirm a bull market. Separately on Monday, strategists at Deutsche Bank also forecast the S&P 500 would end 2024 at 5,100. BMO sees S&P 500 earnings rising about 13.6% in 2024, a "significant rebound" from this year. "We also believe that volatility is likely to subside as macro-environment resiliency continues to surprise alongside falling inflation," the BMO strategists said.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Brian Belski, Lewis Krauskopf, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, BMO Capital Markets, BMO Chief, BMO, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ US recession will prompt 175 basis points in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. With the Fed rate currently at 5.25%-5.5%, that would reduce the rate to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. At the same time, the bank expects that the economic weakness "eases inflationary pressures," Ryan said. DB expects an initial cut of 50 basis points at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts over the rest of the year. The U.S. economy so far has appeared to stave off predictions of a recession even as the Fed has hiked rates by 525 basis points since March 2022.

Persons: Brett Ryan, “, ”, Ryan, Lewis Krauskopf, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal, Deutsche Bank, Traders, Reuters, DB, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Take Five: Warming up this winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Morning Bid: Markets in a holiday mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsNov 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Lewis Krauskopf, markets correspondent. Markets were buoyant ahead of Asia trading and the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., with stocks resuming their massive rally this month that has been fueled by hopes of a more benign interest rate backdrop. Japanese markets were also set to be closed for a national holiday on Thursday. While speculation that the Bank of Japan could exit from negative interest rates early next year stands to help stabilize the yen, the Japanese currency still faces strong headwinds. Trading volumes were set to be subdued for the rest of the week with markets in the U.S. closed on Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Singapore CPI, Indonesia Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Santa Claus, New York City, U.S, Lewis, Asia, China, Beijing, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Nvidia takes the stage as equity rally pauses
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The logo of NVIDIA as seen at its corporate headquarters in Santa Clara, California, in May of 2022. Courtesy NVIDIA/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 22 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Lewis Krauskopf, markets correspondent. A rally in stocks took a breather ahead of Wednesday's session in Asia as U.S. investors mostly shrugged off minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Still, major U.S. equity indexes ended lower on the day. Its shares have been one of the Magnificent Seven megacap stocks whose massive gains have propelled equity indexes higher this year, with Nvidia hitting a record high this week ahead of its results.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf Organizations: NVIDIA, Handout, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Fed, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, greenback, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Santa Clara , California, Lewis, Asia, U.S, Shanghai, Singapore, Taiwan

☆ Wall St Week Ahead After breathtaking surge, US stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up nearly 18% for the year and less than 2% away from its year-high, reached in July. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Yung, Yu Ma, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, ” Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Seasonality, LSEG Datastream, Jason Pride, Keith Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, BMO Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Ned, Ned Davis Research, “, CPI, Dakota Wealth, Nvidia, Advisory Services, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead - After breathtaking surge, U.S. stocks' path may rest on economic soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Are U.S. stocks poised to continue their dramatic run, or is a pause ahead? The index is now up 17% for the year and about 6% from its record closing high from January 2022. Analysts at Ned Davis Research, which has been recommending an overweight to stocks, this week said investors should further shift into equities and away from bonds. One source of worry has been a renewed climb in stocks' valuations.

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

☆ US rate cut not seen until Q4 2024 due to strong GDP growth -Goldman economists
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman projects the Fed to deliver its first rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2024 once a key inflation gauge falls below 2.5%. Goldman then expects one 25 basis point cut per quarter until the second quarter of 2026, when the fed funds rate would reach 3.5-3.75%, a "higher equilibrium rate than last cycle." By contrast, traders are expecting the Fed to cut rates starting in the middle of 2024, according to LSEG data. That is similar to the forecast from Morgan Stanley economists, who said in a report that they expect the first 25 basis point cut in June 2024. The initial rate cut will be followed by cuts at three more Fed meetings next year and at every meeting in 2025, Morgan Stanley said in its economics outlook report.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Lewis Krauskopf, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal, Goldman, Thomson Locations: U.S

Thursday's drop ended the longest winning streaks in two years for the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted its highest closing level since Sept 19. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsAll 11 S&P 500 sectors ended in positive territory, led by a 2.6% gain for the technology sector (.SPLRCT). For the week, the Dow rose about 0.7%, the S&P 500 gained 1.3% and the Nasdaq climbed 2.4%. Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in November, and households' expectations for inflation rose again.

Persons: Illumina, Jerome Powell, ”, Chuck Carlson, Rick Meckler, Brendan McDermid, ” Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Amruta, Maju Samuel, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Nasdaq, CPI, Dow, Federal, Investors, Treasury, Horizon Investment, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Hammond , Indiana, New Vernon , New Jersey, New York City, U.S, New York

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Thursday's decline ended the longest winning streaks in two years for the S&P 500 (.SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC). The S&P 500 touched its highest level since Sept 20. All 11 S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory, with technology (.SPLRCT) leading the way, up 2.2%. On the Nasdaq, advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.5-to-1 ratio, while the Nasdaq recorded 49 new highs and 318 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Illumina, Jerome Powell, ”, Rick Meckler, ” Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Amruta, Maju Samuel, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, CPI, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Investors, Treasury, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Microsoft, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey, New York

☆ Take Five: That rate cut trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Markets are keen to trade rate cuts and big central banks are pushing back, shining a new light on upcoming data in that tug of war. Traders, anticipating roughly three quarter-point Fed rate cuts next year, will now turn their attention to Tuesday's inflation data to confirm their view on the outlook. A sharper cooling could fan the peak rate talk, fuelled by October's employment report, which pointed to an easing in labor markets. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ ONCE BITTENThe robust dollar suddenly appears vulnerable to the push and pull in the market's Fed rate cut bets. The data could also help justify, or challenge, recent remarks from BoE chief economist Huw Pill that mid-2024 could be the time for rate cuts.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Ping, Powell, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, BoE, Huw Pill, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Riddhima Talwani, Prinz Magtulis, Jayaram, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Traders, Reuters, Beijing, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, New York, Tokyo, Milan, London, Washington, September's, Germany, Europe, ITALY, Italy

☆ Take Five: You (may) have arrived at your destination
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

No wonder markets see a 70% chance that the Fed's brutal 20-month tightening cycle is over and that rate cuts could begin as soon as June. So watch closely to see if the top central bankers push back against the cut chatter until inflation is truly tamed. Shekel, gold, oil response to the war5/RACE DAY RATE HIKEThe famous Melbourne Cup horse race runs on Tuesday, but some of the shortest odds are on an Aussie central bank rate hike over in Sydney that day. Three-year and 10-year Australian government bond yields have hit their highest since 2011, though backed off slightly on the Fed's hold. The Australian dollar has also rallied strongly against its New Zealand counterpart as rate expectations diverge.

Persons: Marc Jones, Dhara, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Lewis Krauskopf, BoE, Horton, Walt Disney, Mittal, shekel, Antony Blinken, Jordan, Luci Ellis, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima Talwani, Gareth Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, ECB, FX, Bank of Japan, Reuters, eBay, Nvidia, UBS, ABN Amro, Allianz, Friday, U.S, Melbourne Cup, Westpac, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Australia, Gaza, Here's, London, Tokyo, Singapore, New York, Britain, U.S, Europe, Commerzbank, Israel, Gaza City, Iran, Sydney

☆ Wavering ‘Magnificent Seven’ draw bargain-hunters amid U.S. stock sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Surging bond yields and mixed earnings reports have weighed on the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which are collectively down an average of about 15% from their 52-week highs, though they all still sit on hefty gains for the year. The stocks now trade at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 30 times compared with 45 times in mid-June. I actually think the Magnificent Seven will hold up better,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Wealth Management. Because the Magnificent Seven have a combined weighting of 28% in the S&P 500, their performance holds a large sway over the broader index. Lip said his firm owns shares of all seven companies and has recently added to its holdings in some of them.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Meta, ”, Lip, Jay Hatfield, Kim Forrest, ” Forrest, Apple’s, Hatfield, Thomas Ognar, Ognar, ” Ognar, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: NVIDIA Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Microsoft, Wealth Management, Tech, BofA Global Research, Vanda Research, Federal, Treasury, U.S, Google, Facebook, Bokeh Capital Partners, Nvidia, Allspring, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Investors on edge as Middle East conflict intensifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors have grown more worried about a widening conflict in recent days after the U.S. dispatched more military assets to the Middle East while Israel attacked targets in Gaza and Hamas supporters in Lebanon and Syria. Some investors also expect a widening conflict could prompt safe-haven buying of Treasuries. "However, an escalation of the conflict would likely shift attention away from monetary policy concerns and boost safe-haven demand for Treasuries." The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) has climbed in the wake of the conflict and rose on Friday, approaching seven-month highs. The Federal Reserve is set to give its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday, while Apple's quarterly results highlights another busy week of corporate reports.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Brent, Peter Cardillo, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Hamas, Investors, U.S, Capital Economics, Spartan Capital Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Gaza, East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Treasuries, U.S

☆ Soaring Treasury yields threaten long-term performance of US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This year’s climb in Treasury yields is changing that calculus, as government bonds offer income that is viewed as risk-free to investors who hold them to term. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about a full percentage point since then. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Stocks have averaged a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 over the last 10 years, while the term premium has averaged -0.3%. That compares with a historical average forward P/E of 15.6 and a term premium of 1.4% since 1985.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, ”, Quincy Krosby, Elon Musk, John Lynch, Lynch, LSEG, Matthew Miskin, Keith Lerner, ” Lerner, Lewis Krauskopf, Dan Burns, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Soaring U.S, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, . Treasury, BofA Global Research, LPL, Comerica Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, John Hancock Investment Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Advisory, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors seek shelter as U.S. stocks grow more turbulent
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Wall Street’s most closely-watched measure of investor nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), on Friday hit its highest in nearly seven months, as the S&P 500 slid for the week. That has left investors piling into other traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold, as well as short-term debt. Rising bond yields have dampened risk appetite, raising the cost of capital for companies and offering investment competition to stocks. Geopolitical uncertainties, climbing bond yields and the risk of more losses in stocks means "investors face fresh uncertainties," they wrote.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Angelo Kourkafas, Edward Jones, “, Jerome Powell, Brent Kochuba, ”, Rick Meckler, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Equity, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Microsoft, UBS Global Wealth Management, Swiss, Cherry Lane Investments, UBS, Brent, Thomson Locations: New York, Israel, Cherry Lane Investments .

☆ Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul

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